With MacWorld Keynote almost here (tomorrow – January 15) and Q1 2008 Apple [AAPL] quarterly earnings report soon (January 22) … expectations are high for iPhone sales. My Take … iPhone is a superb smart-phone and its future is white hot bright; yet it would be prudent to set realistic iPhone sales expectations in 2008.
Gene Munster – Analyst at Piper Jaffary:
As for the iPhone, Munster expects sales essentially in line with Wall Street expectations. “The iPhone is still in startup mode, so ’08 is more of a foundational year for the product than it is a growth year. We believe it is more important that the iPhone product line progresses in ’08 (with feature improvements and price decreases) than it is for the iPhone to see significant unit growth,” ……. “We anticipate more substantial unit growth in ’09.”
A rumor (9 to 5 Mac story) swirling through Blogosphere, speculates that Apple will announce 5 million iPhones sold at MacWorld 2008. If sales to Euro carriers (for inventory) are treated as “sold,” then this should give iPhone sales a boost. Regardless, I am not expecting more than 3.7 million iPhones sold by MacWorld. If the “9 to 5 Mac” story proves true (unlikely in my opinion), then it will be a second New Years celebration for AAPL shareholders. I’m not trying to throw a pail of cold water on this “5 million already sold” notion; however, it pays to be cautious (suspicious) over un-sourced stories.
FWIW … here is the comment I posted on 9 to 5 Mac’s site.
Submitted by idannyb (not verified) on Sat, 12/22/2007 – 22:47.
At the end of fiscal 4th Qtr 2007 Apple had sold 1.39 million iPhones. I believe Gene Munster has estimated that Apple will sell appx. 2 million iPhones in both Q1 and Q2 of fiscal 2008 … this would track to approximately 3.7 million iPhones sold by MacWorld Expo 2008. Therefore, I’d say that 5 million is very much on the optimistic side. If Apple does in fact achieve 5 million iPhones sold by MacWorld, then it’s Katie bar the door! AAPL will smash through 200 pps.